Population Foreshadows Housing Bubbles and Busts

オーストラリアのメルボルンで開催された 26TH PAN PACIFIC CONGRESS にて論文発表を行いました。



会議

26TH PAN PACIFIC CONGRESS OF REAL ESTATE APPRAISERS, VALUERS AND COUNSELLORS

 日程

1-4 OCTOBER 2012

論文発表pdf

THURSDAY 4 OCTOBER 2012 11:00am-11:30am

スピーカー

不動産鑑定士・MRICS・CIIA 山口 和範 (略歴)

会場

MELBOURNE CONVENTION AND EXHIBITION CENTRE

 
 講演内容PDF

Abstract

It has been over twenty years since the Japanese property bubble burst. In the USA, the housing bubble that was caused by subprime mortgages exploded in 2006. In Europe as well, especially in the UK, Ireland, and Spain, housing prices reached their peak in 2007–2008. Where the housing bubbles burst in these developed countries, whether by coincidence or inevitability, the percentage of the working age population (15–64 years old/WAP) peaked at the same time.

In this paper, by using the UN 2010 World Population Prospects, I test interval estimation for the coincidence of the year that the WAP percentage peaks and the housing bubble explodes. Next, I employ regression analysis using the rate of change in housing prices and the rate of change in the WAP and find that before the Lehman collapse the correlation of these two quantities was statistically significant, whereas post-Lehman, it is not in general. However, the data for each country in each year show that the correlations are statistically significant in most of the countries whose housing prices rose dramatically. For the WAP-decreasing countries, a rise in housing prices will happen only with local population density or printing more money in the future.

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